The Desert Real Estate Market Trends Report for Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Indian Wells, La Quinta and Cathedral City.

Statistical Tables

The Recovery Continues

Since the median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over $300,000 last April, the first time since April 2008, it has fluctuated in a narrow band between $275,000 and $367,500.

We are definitely in the recovery stage of this real estate cycle.

Other signs we are in the recovery stage are:

  • Declining foreclosures
  • Low inventory
  • Low mortgage rates
  • Increased building.

 

I expect we will stay in this stage for the next few years. When the above signs start turning, we will probably be at or nearing the next peak in the market.

Some pundits are predicting the next peak in the market will happen around 2020.

One thing to keep firmly in mind, real estate is very local so what pundits say about the national real estate market may or may not correlate with what will happen in our local market.

March Statistics

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Data Mar 14 Feb 14 Mar 13
Median Price: $367,500 $336,150 $280,000
Average Price: $547,109 $528,143 $413,834
Home Sales: 536 422 804
Sale/List Price Ratio: 94.7% 93.7% 94.8%
Days on Market: 99 87 92
(Attached Homes)
Data Mar 14 Feb 14 Mar 13
Median Price: $270,000 $240,000 $200,000
Average Price: $291,928 $277,081 $224,827
Home Sales: 260 175 370
Sale/List Price Ratio: 95.4% 95.4% 95.1%
Days on Market: 100 103 102

The median price for single-family, re-sale home was up 31.3% year-over-year. That is the twenty-fourth month in a row the median price has been higher than the year before.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 33.3% last month compared to March 2013. That's six months in a row home sales have been lower than the year before.

Attached homes and condo sales were off 29.7% year-over-year.

The median price for attached homes and condos was up 12.5% from February, and it was up 35% year-over-year.

Since January 2013, the 3-month moving average median price is up 28.2% for attached homes. It is up 59.4% from the bottom of the market which was in October 2011.

Desert Price Differences
from January 2013 & Peak & Trough
Homes: detached      
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 16.2% -25.2% 107.4% Jun-07 Apr-09
12-month 15.6% -28.6% 75.7% Nov-07 Nov-09
Homes: attached      
3-month 28.2% -33.7% 59.4% Mar-06 Oct-11
12-month 17.5% -36.8% 30.1% Jun-06 May-12
The 3-month moving average median price for detached homes is up 16.2% from January 2013. The median price has bounced up 107.4% from the bottom of the market, but is still down 25.2% from the peak.

Sales momentum…

for homes plummeted 4.2 points to  -5.5. Sales momentum for condos dropped 6.2 points to +11.1. (See charts below)

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for the median price.

Pricing momentum…

for homes rose 0.2 of a point to  +24.1. Pricing momentum for condos gained 1.2 points to +14.5.

Palm Springs Area Real Estate Market Momentum Chart

Palm Springs area real estate condo sales momentum

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options.

Palm Springs area real estate

As you can see by the following charts, the largest swings in prices has been in the under $500K segment of the market. Above that, pricing has been pretty stable. Sales, on the other hand, have been stagnant under $500,000, but are surging above that.

Median Prices
Percent Change From Year Before
  <$500K >=$500K and <$1MM >=$1MM
2000 12.7% 1.0% 0.0%
2001 14.5% 1.2% -3.8%
2002 18.3% -3.9% 0.0%
2003 13.8% 3.3% -3.2%
2004 23.4% 2.4% -1.1%
2005 16.9% 3.1% 3.0%
2006 0.1% -0.8% 2.6%
2007 -1.6% 1.5% 1.8%
2008 -33.8% -2.2% 7.9%
2009 -26.7% -1.5% -8.9%
2010 9.8% 0.0% -0.9%
2011 -8.9% -1.5% -1.8%
2012 16.4% -0.8% -1.8%
2013 24.1% 2.4% 3.3%
Home Sales
Percent Change From Year Before
  <$500K >=$500K and <$1MM >=$1MM
2000 16.0% 40.1% 43.4%
2001 -7.2% 2.5% -18.5%
2002 38.1% 63.5% 47.4%
2003 12.3% 71.5% 48.3%
2004 -3.5% 75.4% 109.4%
2005 -25.0% 2.4% 38.7%
2006 -12.5% -16.3% 10.1%
2007 -30.1% -15.3% -17.0%
2008 87.6% -25.3% -29.5%
2009 41.4% -16.6% -41.1%
2010 -10.7% 15.9% 41.0%
2011 17.1% 8.5% -6.1%
2012 -6.2% 8.2% 22.9%
2013 -0.5% 48.8% 33.1%

The median price for the under $500,000 segment of the market was up 21.4% year-over-year in March. This segment constituted 65.7% of sales in March.

Palm Springs area home sales and prices under $500,000

By contrast, the $500,000 to $1,000,000 segment of the market was 22% of sales last month. The median price was down 0.6% year-over-year in March.

Palm Springs area home sales and prices

The million dollar plus market was 12.3% of total sales in March. The median price for this segment of the market was off 8.5% year-over-year in March.

See our Annual Report for year-end numbers.

Palm Springs are $1MM home sales and prices

The graphs below show monthly prices and sales since 2005. We have used a three month moving average to smooth out monthly fluctuations yet retain seasonal flow.

This chart show the number of homes sold plus the median and average prices since 2005.

This chart show the number of condos sold plus the median and average prices since 2005.

For full details see the tables below and the Monthly Trends section which breaks out each city's statistics. That menu is at the left.

Also, check out our Annual Trends section for charts and graphs for the past eight years.

The following table provides the median price, the average price and the number of units sold for residential re-sale single family homes.

Monthly Statistics

Desert Home Statistics
March 2014
  Homes     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales MedY AveY SalesY MedM AveM SalesM
Combined $367,500 $547,109 536 31.3% 32.2% -33.3% 9.3% 3.6% 27.0%
Palm Springs $550,000 $692,303 85 31.3% 45.5% -38.0% 17.8% 11.5% 32.8%
Palm Desert $361,000 $552,012 61 7.8% 22.6% -40.8% -12.0% -21.5% 19.6%
La Quinta $437,000 $681,205 118 23.1% 17.0% -13.9% 11.3% 4.9% 13.5%
Indian Wells $915,000 $1,291,310 29 30.7% 19.6% -23.7% -9.1% 2.0% 107.1%
Rancho Mirage $625,000 $795,672 39 28.2% 38.5% -29.1% -8.8% -3.2% 69.6%
Cathedral City $226,000 $239,688 33 15.9% 14.3% -64.1% -1.7% -4.8% 6.5%
Indio $258,500 $283,665 79 17.8% 20.8% -18.6% -7.2% -6.5% 31.7%
Desert Hot Springs $136,000 $138,098 54 15.7% 14.8% -32.5% -6.2% 2.1% 31.7%
Sun City - PD $318,500 $345,550 30 4.6% 8.1% -16.7% -10.0% -0.9% 57.9%
Bermuda Dunes $415,000 $465,938 8 40.5% 42.7% 100.0% 27.3% 5.0% -11.1%
This table provides the median price, the average price and the number of units sold for residential re-sale condominiums.

Desert Condo/Attached Statistics
March 2014
  Condos     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales MedY AveY SalesY MedM AveM SalesM
Combined $270,000 $291,928 260 35.0% 29.8% -29.7% 12.5% 5.4% 48.6%
Palm Springs $215,251 $244,046 72 13.3% 25.6% -57.4% 7.1% 9.1% 18.0%
Palm Desert $265,000 $292,494 83 15.3% 19.5% -13.5% -7.0% -10.6% 84.4%
La Quinta $370,000 $383,258 33 34.5% 21.4% -2.9% 13.8% 10.7% 57.1%
Indian Wells $370,000 $569,050 10 66.3% 143.5% 150.0% -3.9% 15.3% 42.9%
Rancho Mirage $307,500 $336,650 38 16.0% 11.0% 8.6% 25.5% 14.8% 72.7%
Cathedral City $127,450 $135,835 12 31.4% 17.0% -14.3% -4.2% -1.4% 20.0%
Indio $147,500 $132,333 6 3.7% -23.3% -53.8% 17.0% 16.3% 50.0%
Desert Hot Springs n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
If we can help you devise a strategy, call or click buyer or seller.  To keep on top of the market, subscribe to this report and you will be notified by e-mail when it is updated each month.

The Graphs

Trend charts for individual cities can be reached by clicking on the City Trends menu to the left.

For detailed information on a specific neighborhood or country club, give Greg Bauer a call at (800) 975-7720, or fill out the appropriate form: Buyers or Sellers.

For our opinion of what your home will sell for in today's market, call or e-mail us.